Market insights and analysis

In 1999, I began working with writer Susan Ward at the weekly financial news magazine Barron’s to produce a series of columns on Flexible Plan Investments’ (FPI’s) Political Seasonality Index (PSI). In the first issue of each year, we would show a chart of the turning points in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) for the year ahead based on the twists and turns of the PSI. In the final issue of the year, we would republish the forecast chart from January and overlay the actual chart of the Dow during the past year and see how closely the Dow followed the predicted course.

The major U.S. stock market indexes were down last week. The S&P 500 decreased by 3.35%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.40%, the NASDAQ Composite was down 5.65%, and the Russell 2000 small-capitalization index fell 2.55%. The 10-year Treasury bond yield rose 15 basis points to 4.16%, taking Treasury bonds lower for the week. Spot gold closed the week at $1,681.87, up 2.25%.

The major U.S. stock market indexes finished up last week. The S&P 500 jumped 3.95%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 5.72%, the NASDAQ Composite was up 2.24%, and the Russell 2000 small-capitalization index rose 6.01%. The 10-year Treasury bond yield fell 20 basis points to 4.01%, sending bond prices higher for the week. Spot gold closed the week at $1,644.86, down 0.77%.

The major market indexes finished higher last week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 4.9%, the S&P 500 Index rose 4.7%, the NASDAQ Composite climbed 5.2%, and the Russell 2000 small-capitalization index picked up 3.5%. The 10-year Treasury bond yield rose 20 basis points to 4.222%, sending bond prices lower for the week. Gold futures closed at $1,656.30, up $7.40 per ounce, or 0.45%.

Inflation continued to be the major factor affecting markets in the third quarter. The second quarter saw the largest interest-rate increases in recent memory. The third quarter saw the continuation of those increases.

The major U.S. stock market indexes rose slightly last week after experiencing significant declines. The Russell 2000 was the best performer, rising 2.25%. The NASDAQ Composite was the worst performer, increasing by 0.73%. The S&P 500 gained 1.51% as the market found some relief from heavy selling. The 10-year Treasury bond yield rose 5 basis points to 3.88%, continuing a run-up that began on August 1. Spot gold closed the week at $1,694.82, up 2.06%.