Current market environment performance of dynamic, risk-managed investment solutions.
By Daniel Poppe
Market snapshot
***
For the latest information on our Quantified Funds, check out our weekly fund updates. You can also see the daily holdings of the funds here.
Stocks
The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), which tracks the performance of the S&P 500, finished the week below its 50-day moving average but above its 200-day moving average.
Heightened tensions in the Middle East have led to a flurry of events in financial markets. Oil prices have surged amid supply concerns, and volatility has increased as uncertainty grows around potential developments. U.S. equity markets declined in response.
Investors had already been uneasy since late last year. Concerns that productivity gains from AI might not materialize as quickly as hoped contributed to the sideways market trend. A weak employment report released last Friday added to those concerns.
With most fourth-quarter 2025 earnings reports now behind us, investors will be watching the economy closely for impacts from the recent oil shock. The latest earnings numbers came in strong, but supply-chain disruptions could lead to greater uncertainty about 2026 profits. The market still hopes that advances in AI will translate into strong economic growth.
Bonds
The iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF), which tracks intermediate-term Treasury bonds, finished the week above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages.
Despite recent stock market volatility, bonds have not served in their traditional role as a safe-haven asset. Instead, they have pulled back alongside stocks. This could be due to inflation concerns driven by the spike in oil prices. Higher energy costs can ripple through the economy, potentially reducing the Federal Reserve’s willingness to lower interest rates.
The Fed left its target policy rate range unchanged at its January meeting. The Federal Open Market Committee will meet next week to consider whether to adjust the policy rate. CME Group’s FedWatch tool shows investors currently assigning a high probability to no rate change at the meeting.
Gold
The SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD), which tracks the price of gold, finished the week above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages.
Flexible Plan Investments (FPI) is the subadviser to the only U.S. gold mutual fund, The Quantified Gold Futures Tracking Fund, formerly The Gold Bullion Strategy Fund. Launched in 2013, the fund is designed to track the daily price changes in the precious metal in a more tax-efficient manner than its ETF counterpart, GLD.
FPI’s indicators
The QFC S&P Pattern Recognition strategy’s primary signal held a 200% net long exposure to the S&P 500 throughout the week.
Our QFC Political Seasonality Index strategy was aggressive throughout the week. (Our QFC Political Seasonality Index—with all of the daily signals—is available post-login in our Weekly Performance Report section under the Domestic Tactical Equity category.)
The Volatility Adjusted NASDAQ strategy started the week with a 40% net long exposure to the NASDAQ 100. Exposure increased to 80% net long on Monday, declined to 60% net long on Wednesday, and returned to 40% net long on Thursday.
The Systematic Advantage strategy started the week with a 90% net long exposure to the S&P 500. Exposure decreased to 60% net long on Monday.
Our QFC Self-adjusting Trend Following strategy’s primary signal was 200% net long the NASDAQ 100 going into the week. Exposure changed to 0% on Monday and returned to 200% net long on Wednesday.
Volatility Adjusted NASDAQ, Systematic Advantage, QFC Self-adjusting Trend Following, and the QFC S&P Pattern Recognition strategies can all employ leverage, so the investment positions may at times exceed 100%.
Our Classic model remained in stocks throughout last week. Most of our Classic accounts follow a signal that will allow the strategy to change exposure in as little as a week. A few accounts are on platforms that are more restrictive and can take up to one month to generate a new signal.
FPI’s Growth and Inflation measure is one of our Market Regime Indicators. It shows that we are in a Normal economic environment stage (meaning a positive monthly change in prices and a positive monthly change in GDP). Historically, a Normal environment has occurred 75% of the time since 2003 and has been a positive regime state for stocks, bonds, and gold. Stocks have the highest rate of return in Normal periods. Gold has the second-highest return but has also experienced high drawdown in these environments.
Our S&P volatility regime is registering a High and Rising reading, which favors stocks over gold and then bonds from an annualized return standpoint. The combination has occurred 28% of the time since 2003.