Seasons change, but your forecast is personal

By Jerry Wagner

Before you change your portfolio, always check your OnTarget Monitor.

The calendar tells us fall begins this week. But anyone who has lived through the changing of the seasons knows the date is only part of the story. We’ll still get warm afternoons well after the equinox. Some maples will blush early while others stay green. Lakes will cool unevenly. Migrating flocks will follow their own rhythms, regardless of what our calendars say.

Investing works the same way. Headlines stamp a date on “the start” of a correction or “the end” of a rally. Indexes reach new highs or experience sharp declines. But your success isn’t defined by a date or headline—it’s determined by your personal circumstances: your goals, your time horizon, and the level of risk you’ve indicated you’re willing to take.

That’s why we built the OnTarget Monitor.

Your personal weather station for investing, not a national report

National weather maps are helpful, but they don’t tell you if the breeze on your dock calls for a windbreaker or a sweater. The OnTarget Monitor is your personal weather station for investing. It measures progress in your backyard—not on a distant index’s mountaintop.

The OnTarget Monitor isn’t a one-size-fits-all tool:

•  It’s customized from your suitability questionnaire, which reflects your goals, time horizon, and risk tolerance. That personalization makes it a powerful and reliable guide for your investment journey.

•  It uses composite benchmarks that mirror the risk of the strategies you hold and their allocations.

•  It compares your actual after-fee account value (the black line) to a color-coded projection range for your goal and time horizon. Blue or green indicates you’re on course to reach your dollar target within your stated time frame. Yellow or red could mean you are drifting off course—time to review, not to panic.

Think of the colors on the OnTarget Monitor as seasonal markers for your investment plan: blue/green indicates conditions are normal for your plan, yellow signifies “grab a jacket,” and red means “let’s change the itinerary.” The point is not to match someone else’s climate—it’s to stay prepared for yours, just like you would dress appropriately for the weather in your area.

Why do we keep getting “it feels cold” calls on 72° days?

This fall, like many before it, I’ve taken several calls from investors with questions about performance—only to open their OnTarget Monitor and find their accounts comfortably in the green or even the blue. Why the disconnect?

Here are the most common reasons:

1. Comparing to the wrong season. The S&P 500 isn’t risk-adjusted and may bear little resemblance to your portfolio’s strategy mix. It’s like dressing for the snow in January because the calendar says “winter,” while your porch thermometer still reads 55°.
2. Using the wrong map. Some investors and advisers still default to broad, single-asset benchmarks that don’t reflect their actual allocations. If you own a blend of tactical equity, fixed income, and alternatives, a stock-only index isn’t your compass.
3. Not knowing where to look. Clients and even some advisers haven’t made a habit of checking the OnTarget Monitor before forming an opinion. If the thermostat on the wall says 72°, it doesn’t matter what the weather forecaster said for the next county over.
4. Expectations set by headlines, not planning. A burst of market excitement (or worry) can reset expectations for “what good should look like”—often without regard to time horizon, drawdown comfort, or suitability answers.
5. Old suitability, new emotions. If market conditions have changed how you feel about risk, it’s important to update your suitability questionnaire. That update keeps your perception and plan in sync and ensures your investment strategy remains aligned with your goals and risk tolerance.

None of these issues reflects a failure of your plan. They’re failures of perspective. That is precisely what the OnTarget Monitor is designed to restore—a clear view that reassures you and reinforces your confidence in your plan.

How to use the OnTarget Monitor when concern creeps in

When conditions feel uncertain, here’s a simple, repeatable sequence to follow:

1. Open your OnTarget Monitor (an example is shown above). You’ll find it in your personal section of our OnTarget Investing website; a direct link is also included in your OnTarget statement.
2. Locate the dollar target on the right. That’s the goal your plan is built to reach within your stated time horizon.
3. Find your black line. This is your actual after-fee account value, tracked month by month.
4. Check the color zone where your black line sits.

◦  Blue/green: You are on track for your goal and time horizon. Conditions may feel like late fall, but you’re still enjoying a warm afternoon.

◦  Yellow/red: It’s time to review, not to react. Discuss with your financial adviser whether your strategies, allocations, or time horizon need adjustment.

If you’re an adviser, make this the first page you and your client view together. If you’re a client, make it your first stop before drawing conclusions. In both cases, it shifts conversations from “Why aren’t we matching the S&P?” to “Are we on pace for our target given our risk and horizon?”

The S&P 500 is a market gauge, not your personal benchmark

The S&P 500 is a powerful indicator of the market environment, but it isn’t your benchmark for success unless your plan, risk tolerance, and holdings match its risk—and for most investors, they don’t. The Index has endured multiple drawdowns of more than 50% in recent decades. Translation: Investors lost more than half their money. Most suitability questionnaires do not suggest comfort with such a high temperature.

Comparing your portfolio to the S&P is like measuring your garden by snowfall in the Rockies. Interesting? Sure. Useful for your tomatoes? Not really.

Your personalized OnTarget Monitor benchmark is tailored to your risk, allocations, and timeline. It keeps the measurement honest and relevant—month after month, season after season.

Advisers: Make it part of every season

For our adviser partners, the OnTarget Monitor should be a regular part of client conversations:

•  Set expectations early. At the beginning of the relationship, explain what it means when the OnTarget Monitor shows blue/green (on course) and yellow/red (review needed).

•  Start reviews with the OnTarget Monitor. Use it as the first frame of reference in reviews, before showing outside index charts.

•  Check in before concerns build. Use the My Business Analyzer dashboard on FlexiblePlan.com to see client OnTarget Monitor scores and reach out before clients feel worried.

•  Keep suitability current. When clients’ lives change—such as marriage, retirement, new cash needs, or health events—have them update their suitability questionnaire so the “weather station” reflects their actual circumstances.

When fall feels like summer

As we step into the new season, the calendar may say “autumn,” but the lake can still feel like October in the morning and July in the afternoon. Markets behave the same way—transitions are uneven, noisy, and easy to misread.

When you feel that urge to bundle up (or jump in) because of what a headline or index declares, check your local conditions first. Open your OnTarget Monitor. If your black line is in the green or blue, your plan is working—regardless of what the national forecast says. If not, we’ll adjust with the weather at hand, refine the map, and steer you back toward your marked destination.

Markets, like seasons, change—but success comes from measuring progress by the right conditions, not the calendar or the crowd. Measure the season by your own circumstances—and stay OnTarget.