Market Update 9/8/26

By Daniel Poppe

Market snapshot

•  Stocks: U.S. stocks were mostly higher last week. The NASDAQ Composite advanced 0.42%, the Russell 2000 Index rose 0.15%, the S&P 500 Index gained 0.13%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.16%.

•  Bonds: The 10-year Treasury yield rose from 4.73% to 4.78% last week.

•  Gold: Spot gold fell 0.56% last week but remained above $4,400 an ounce.

•  Market indicators and outlook: FPI’s market regime indicators show the market is in a Normal economic environment stage, which is historically positive for stocks, bonds, and gold but with a substantial risk of a downturn for gold. Normal is one of the best stages for stocks, with limited downside. Volatility is Low and Falling, which favors stocks over gold and then bonds.

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For the latest information on our Quantified Funds, check out our weekly fund updates. You can also see the daily holdings of the funds here.

Stocks

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY), which tracks the performance of the S&P 500 Index, finished the week above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages.

Stocks remain near record highs despite the continued rise in oil prices. Crude oil moved above $90 a barrel last week, returning to levels seen when geopolitical tensions increased in the spring. Companies may have some ability to pass higher input costs on to consumers, which could help explain the relatively muted reaction in stock prices to the recent oil surge.

AI may also be providing support. Companies across the economy are adopting new technologies in an effort to increase productivity and profitability. Second-quarter earnings for the S&P 500 were strong, with semiconductor companies contributing to earnings growth as demand for the chips needed to support AI expansion remained elevated.

Bonds

The iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF), which tracks intermediate-term U.S. Treasurys, finished last week below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages.

Bonds remained under pressure last week, continuing the weakness that began in late February. The recent rise in oil prices could add to inflation expectations, although recent inflation readings have not shown meaningful acceleration. For now, investors are still waiting to see whether higher energy costs begin to show up more clearly in the data.

The Federal Open Market Committee is scheduled to meet next week. Current expectations are split between no change in rates and a quarter-point increase, with CME FedWatch assigning a higher probability to a hike. A rate increase would suggest that the Federal Reserve is taking a more proactive approach to containing inflation and keeping it closer to its long-term goal of 2%.  

Gold

The SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD), which tracks the price of gold, finished the week above its 50-day moving average but below its 200-day moving average.

Flexible Plan Investments (FPI) is the subadviser to the only U.S. gold mutual fund, The Quantified Gold Futures Tracking Fund. Launched in 2013, the fund is designed to track the daily price changes in the precious metal in a more tax-efficient manner than its ETF counterpart, GLD.

FPI’s indicators

The QFC S&P Pattern Recognition strategy’s primary signal started the week 60% net long the S&P 500. Exposure increased to 110% net long on Monday, 160% net long on Tuesday, and 190% net long on Wednesday before falling to 110% net long on Thursday and ending the week 90% net long.

Our QFC Political Seasonality Index strategy was defensive at the start of the week, then shifted aggressively on Tuesday. Our QFC Political Seasonality Index—including all the daily signals—is available after login in our Weekly Performance Report section under the Domestic Tactical Equity category.

The Volatility Adjusted NASDAQ strategy remained 140% net long the NASDAQ 100 throughout the week.

The Systematic Advantage strategy began the week 120% net long the S&P 500 Index. Exposure fell to 90% net long on Tuesday and returned to 120% net long on Friday.

Our QFC Self-Adjusting Trend Following strategy’s primary signal began the week 200% net long the NASDAQ 100 and moved to 0% net long on Tuesday.

The Volatility Adjusted NASDAQ, Systematic Advantage, QFC Self-Adjusting Trend Following, and QFC S&P Pattern Recognition strategies can all employ leverage, so exposure may exceed 100% at times.

Our Classic model remained in stocks throughout last week. Most of our Classic accounts follow a signal that will allow the strategy to change exposure in as little as a week. A few accounts are on platforms that are more restrictive and can take up to one month to generate a new signal.

FPI’s Growth and Inflation measure is one of our Market Regime Indicators. It shows that we are in a Normal economic environment stage (meaning a positive monthly change in prices and a positive monthly change in GDP). Historically, a Normal environment has occurred 75% of the time since 2003 and has been a positive regime state for stocks, bonds, and gold. Stocks have the highest rate of return in Normal periods. Gold has the second-highest return but has also experienced high drawdown in these environments.  

Our S&P volatility regime is registering a Low and Falling reading, which favors stocks over gold and then bonds from an annualized return standpoint. The combination has occurred 32% of the time since 2003.