Market insights and analysis

By Jerry Wagner

“Fishing is not an escape from life, but often a deeper immersion into it.”

    —Harry Middleton

There’s something about casting a line into the lake after a long day that resets everything. I live on a lake here in Michigan, and in the summer months, there’s hardly a better way to unwind. You flick your wrist, the line flies, and then you wait—watching the water, feeling the tension, sensing the rhythm of what you can’t see below the surface.

It strikes me how much the experience of investing resembles that fishing line.

There are times when the line is slack, and not much is happening. Other times, there’s tension—when a fish grabs hold or the line snags on something deeper. And occasionally, it pulls hard—too hard—and the line jerks or even snaps back. That back-and-forth, that tension and release … it’s precisely how financial markets behave.

When the line gets tight

The first half of 2025 offered a textbook lesson in tension. After a strong finish to 2024, the S&P 500 climbed steadily into February—stretching well above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. But just like a fishing line pulled too tight, the market hit a snag.

In February, the market was overbought, volatility surged, and prices snapped lower—retesting levels we hadn’t seen in months. The sell-off was fast and sharp, a reminder of how quickly stretched optimism can give way to fear.

The turnaround was so sudden that many investors—and quite a few trend-following strategies—had little time to react. Some investors held on to their rods and waited it out. Others thought they had lost their lure and abandoned stocks altogether.

But then, something just as dramatic happened: a reversal. That was the time for traders to set the hook and reel in their catch.

As the bottom chart shows, the market had been oversold, but it found support near its long-term trend line and bounced back with strength. By June, the S&P had not only recovered but pushed to fresh highs, fueled by renewed confidence and improving breadth.

If you fish often, you know this scenario well: the sudden resistance, the slack, the steady retrieval. The key isn’t reacting to every tug—it’s having the correct setup and knowing when to let the tension work in your favor.

The snapback: Our strategies in action

This year’s rebound wasn’t just about the market—it was about how you were positioned when the line went taut.

At Flexible Plan Investments (FPI), our strategies are not just designed for moments like these, they thrive in them. They adjust dynamically to market conditions, demonstrating their resilience and effectiveness in the face of uncertainty:

•  The QFC Market Leaders strategy increased market exposure on April 29 to participate in the market rally that began earlier that month.

•  The QFC Self-adjusting Trend Following strategy had seemingly lost its way in the first quarter. But by May 13, its primary signal was fully exposed to the market again, identifying the shift in leadership early and positioning itself for the upswing.

•  While bonds were not as volatile, the QFC Managed Income strategy still built up a sizable cash position in April, which began to unwind in late May as conditions improved.

•  In the alternative space, one of our newer strategies, QFC Dynamic Trends, participated vigorously in the uptrend, outperforming the S&P 500 in the quarter’s turnaround rally.

•  The QFC Multi-Strategy portfolios blended trend-following, mean-reversion, and alternative sleeves to participate in the recovery while managing risk. 

•  Our strategies utilized gold throughout the first half of the year. That asset class returned more than 25%.

These are examples of what it means to fish with the right line, reel, and reflexes.

Seeing the big picture with the OnTarget Monitor

When you’re out on the lake, catching a fish isn’t just about feeling the tug. It’s about knowing where you are, how deep your line is, and whether you’re fishing in the right spot. You could have the best equipment, but if you’re casting into the wrong depth—or worse, comparing your catch to someone fishing in a completely different part of the lake—you’re setting yourself up for disappointment.

That’s why we created the OnTarget Monitor—our personal benchmark system that helps investors measure progress in a way that’s relevant, realistic, and aligned with their own financial plan.

Unlike common benchmarks such as the S&P 500—which often carry more risk than your portfolio is designed to handle—the OnTarget Monitor is a personalized benchmark based on the answers you provide in your suitability questionnaire: your timeline, your goals, and your risk tolerance. It should be your gold standard in determining whether your portfolio is meeting your stated goals.

The comparison isn’t made to a generalized reference index but rather to customized benchmark indexes that reflect the risk level of the strategies selected for your portfolio. It even mirrors your portfolio’s allocation, matching each benchmark in the same proportion as your actual holdings.

The monitor shows a personal performance “range”—blue or green for on-target, yellow for drifting, and red for off course. Each month, your current portfolio value is plotted directly on this chart, like using a GPS on the lake to show you exactly where you are.

It’s not just a number—it’s a visual guide to whether you’re making progress toward your objectives. And just like a seasoned angler uses a depth finder to decide whether to cast deeper or change lures, you and your adviser can use the OnTarget Monitor to determine whether any adjustments are needed—without overreacting to temporary noise.

Too often, investors get “hooked” by headlines. They see the S&P 500 soaring and wonder why their portfolio isn’t doing the same. But here’s the catch: The S&P doesn’t know your retirement date. It doesn’t care about your income needs or comfort with volatility. In fact, the amount of risk it carries is far greater than most investors realize. Trying to match it is like chasing someone else’s trophy fish with the wrong bait, in the wrong weather, with the wrong rod.

The OnTarget Monitor keeps you focused on your goals—not someone else’s. It reminds you that your portfolio isn’t built to beat the index—it’s built to meet your needs in a way that aligns with your comfort level and long-term goals.

You can learn more about our OnTarget Monitor by going to ontargetinvesting.com.

Our portfolio management team uses the same technology to track each of our strategies. At the end of June, out of 150 strategies tracked, only 5% were in the red. Similarly, about 96% of OnTarget Monitors for the quarter were “in the yellow” or better, with 89% “OnTarget” (“in the green”) or better (“in the blue”).

For financial advisers, the My Business Analyzer tool at flexibleplan.com offers a color-coded dashboard view of where all of your clients stand—helping you guide them with confidence, especially in challenging markets.

At the end of the day, investing—like fishing—isn’t about chasing the biggest catch. It’s about knowing what you’re after, setting up wisely, and being patient enough to reel it in when the time is right. The OnTarget Monitor works like sonar for your portfolio—measuring progress beneath the surface, marking your targets, and keeping your confidence afloat.

Fishing with confidence

My son and I often fish together on the weekends. The first couple of outings this year were not at all successful. But we stuck with it. We knew there were big ones in our lake. And sure enough, the last time out, Michael pulled in a beauty of a bass … that I have yet to match.

Fishing has taught me that it’s not about predicting the next bite—it’s about being prepared. You don’t control the weather or the fish, but you do control the tools you use, the patience you bring, and the trust you place in your system.

That’s what we aim to provide: portfolios designed to endure tension, absorb shocks, and rebound with purpose. Whether the line is slack or taut, we’ll be here to help you land what matters.