Last week, gold prices slid down to the Fibonacci retracement level of 39% from the high in April. The metal hit $1,675.00 per ounce before bouncing back up to close the week at $1,683.50 per ounce. The U.S. dollar has risen steadily during gold’s recent long decline. This close inverse correlation suggests that we look for trend changes in both gold and the U.S. dollar to confirm a major change in trend for gold. Investors will be focused on the Federal Reserve’s September meeting this week. An interest-rate increase of 75 to 100 basis points is expected to be on the table—possibly the last increase before the November elections. We will be looking for technical indicators to show us when the trend has turned up going forward. As the Fed’s war against inflation falters and the possibility of recession looms during the fall and winter, an extended buying opportunity for gold could present itself. Rick Andrews is president of Avant Capital Management.