Market insights and analysis

How dynamic, risk-managed investment solutions are performing in the current market environment

2nd Quarter | 2022

Market insights and analysis

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Updates on how dynamic, risk-managed investment solutions are performing in the current market environment.

Reading Dr. Edward Thorp’s 1967 book “Beat the Market” in the summer of 1968 changed my life. I had picked the book up as a summer read while home from college. I was intrigued. Years before, I had read a Life magazine account of how Professor Thorp had created the system to beat the dealer at the game of blackjack, or 21.

Last week, gold prices bounced off support at $1,700 per ounce.

I hope you have read Jerry Wagner’s recent article “This time was different!” It provided a good overview of the 2022 relative performance of Flexible Plan Investments’ (FPI’s) turnkey multi-strategy portfolios and FPI’s full complement of Strategic Solutions strategies during this year’s volatile market environment.

Inflation continued its climb to multi-decade highs during the second quarter, and the Federal Reserve’s response grew increasingly aggressive: a 25-basis-point interest-rate increase in April, a 50-basis-point increase in May, and a 75-basis-point increase in June. Estimates of the final resting place for interest rates at the end of the year were revised upward to about 3.45%.

U.S. equity markets posted losses in all three indexes last week. The S&P 500 lost 0.93%, the NASDAQ Composite lost 1.57%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.16%.

Last week, the gold spot price was down 1.97% and the U.S. Dollar Index was up 0.99%.

Gold prices declined last week until they found support at $1,700 per ounce.

June ETF Deathwatch contains 477 zombie ETFs and ETNs.

Normally when an adviser claims, “This time is different,” they are trying to make the opposite point. Usually, the phrase is used to deride bullish investors who are claiming that all of the excesses leading to a booming stock market won’t turn out to be harbingers of a nasty correction in the not too distant future.

The major U.S. stock market indexes rose last week, coming off mid-June lows. The NASDAQ Composite was the strongest performer, up 4.56%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was the weakest performer, rising just 0.77%. The S&P rose 1.94% on weaker-than-anticipated economic indicators, which reduced expectations for rate increases going forward. The 10-year Treasury bond yield jumped 10 basis points to 3.08%, coming off recent lows. Spot gold closed the week at $1,742.48, down 3.81%.

U.S. equity markets posted gains in all three indexes last week. The S&P 500 gained 1.94%, the NASDAQ Composite gained 4.56%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.77%.

Last week, the gold spot price was down 3.81% and the U.S. Dollar Index was up 1.78%.

Last week, gold prices broke down through the year’s lows.

Last week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.3%, the S&P 500 Index fell 2.2%, the NASDAQ Composite dropped 4.1%, and the Russell 2000 small-capitalization index gave back 2.2%. The 10-year Treasury bond yield fell 25 basis points to 2.88%, sending bond prices higher for the week. The U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG) gained 1.5%, while the 20-year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) rose 3.1%. This week, gold futures closed at $1,807.00, down $23.30 per ounce, or 1.27%.

Do these questions ever keep you up at night? “What if we head into a recession and stocks tumble 30%, 40%, 50%?” “What if the economy starts to soar and we have years of growth and prosperity? How should I be invested?”

U.S. equity markets posted losses in all three indexes last week. The S&P 500 lost 2.21%, the NASDAQ Composite lost 4.13%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.28%.

Last week, the gold spot price was down 0.85% and the U.S. Dollar Index was up 0.91%.

Last week, gold prices tested the lows for the year before bouncing back.

I went into my local Walmart over the weekend to buy a number of items, including a 10-pack of 7.5-oz. Diet Coke. (Yes, I know it’s not the best thing to drink, but one “mini” can a day is better than the two regular-sized ones I used to drink.)

The major U.S. stock market indexes were up last week. The S&P 500 increased by 6.45%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 5.39%, the NASDAQ Composite was up 7.49%, and the Russell 2000 small-capitalization index rose 6.01%. The 10-year Treasury bond yield fell 10 basis points to 3.13%, taking Treasury bonds higher for the week. Spot gold closed the week at $1,826.88, down 0.68%.

Last week, the gold spot price was down 0.68% and the U.S. Dollar Index was down 0.49%.

U.S. equity markets posted gains in all three indexes last week.

Last week, gold prices continued to hold steady around their 200-day moving average.

The major U.S. stock market indexes fell sharply last week, with the S&P 500 hitting bear market territory as of Monday’s close. The Russell 2000 was the worst performer for the week, down 7.48%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was the best performer, falling 4.78% for the week. The 10-year Treasury bond yield rose 7 basis points to 3.23% as rates edged upward, peaking on June 14 at 3.47%. Spot gold closed the week at $1,839.39, down 1.72%.

At this time of the year, 20% to 25% of Americans endure watery eyes, sneezing, congestion, and headaches. And pollen is the cause. When the first irritating signs of hay fever hit me this year, I started researching. And that’s when I noticed the following five similarities between allergies and investing (I know it seems like a stretch, but bear with me).

Last week, the gold spot price was down 1.72% and the U.S. Dollar Index was up 0.53%.

U.S. equity markets posted losses in all three indexes last week. The S&P 500 lost 5.79%, the NASDAQ Composite lost 4.78%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 4.79%.

Gold prices remained between their 50-day and 200-day moving averages, closing last week at $1,849.90 per ounce.

May ETF Deathwatch contains 421 zombie ETFs and ETNs.

Last week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 4.6%, the S&P 500 Index fell 5.1%, the NASDAQ Composite dropped 5.6%, and the Russell 2000 small-capitalization index gave back 4.4%. The 10-year Treasury bond yield rose 22 basis points to 3.16%, sending bond prices lower for the week. The U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG) lost 1.5%, while the 20-year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) tumbled 1.95%. Gold futures closed the week at $1,876.30, up $26.10 per ounce, or 1.41%.

With the S&P 500 putting in its worst week since January, finishing down nine out of the last 10 weeks, and now touching bear market territory, it is probably an understatement to call the market environment “uncertain.”

U.S. equity markets posted losses in all three indexes last week. The S&P 500 lost 5.05%, the NASDAQ Composite lost 5.60%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 4.58%.

Last week, the gold spot price was up 1.1% and the U.S. Dollar Index was up 1.97%.

Gold prices surged toward their 50-day moving average after the consumer price index (CPI) for May was released on Friday (June 10).

The major U.S. stock market indexes were down last week. The S&P 500 decreased by 1.20%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.94%, the NASDAQ Composite was down 0.98%, and the Russell 2000 small-capitalization index gave back 0.26%. The 10-year Treasury bond yield rose 20 basis points to 2.93%, taking Treasury bonds lower for the week. Spot gold closed the week at $1,851.19, down 0.14%.

Personal biases influence how people interpret events and what they experience emotionally. For example, there will always be a bullish, bearish, and neutral way to interpret the news that the financial markets are faced with every day. Which one is correct? Who can say?

U.S. equity markets posted losses in all three indexes last week. The S&P 500 lost 1.20%, the NASDAQ Composite lost 0.98%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.94%.

Last week, the gold spot price was down 0.14% and the U.S. Dollar Index was up 0.46%.

Last week, gold prices consolidated between the 50-day and 200-day moving averages.

The major U.S. stock market rebounded strongly during the last full week of May, taking a breather from significant declines experienced year to date. The NASDAQ Composite climbed 6.84% for the week, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 6.24%. The 10-year Treasury bond yield fell 4 basis points to 2.74%. Rates are down from their May 6 high of 3.13%. Spot gold closed the week at $1,853.72, up 0.39%.

Last week, the gold spot price was up 0.39% and the U.S. Dollar Index was down 1.44%.

U.S. equity markets posted gains in all three indexes last week. The S&P 500 gained 6.58%, the NASDAQ Composite gained 6.84%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 6.24%.

Many years ago, Jerry Wagner, Flexible Plan Investments’ founder and president, recognized the value of incorporating multiple asset classes into a portfolio—not statically but dynamically. Using multiple asset classes was not a new concept at the time, but using them dynamically was.

Gold prices bounced off the 200-day moving average after breaking through last week.

The major U.S. stock market indexes finished down last week for the seventh week in a row. This is the longest losing streak since 2001. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 2.9%, the S&P 500 Index fell 3.1%, the NASDAQ Composite dropped 3.8%, and the Russell 2000 small-capitalization index gave back 1.1%. The 10-year Treasury bond yield fell 13 basis points to 2.788%, sending bond prices higher for the week. Gold futures closed the week at $1,846.17, up $22.56 per ounce, or 1.88%.

When we have bouts of volatility, it is important to remember what Jay Mooreland, the founder of the Behavioral Finance Network, says, “The market’s volatility is not your volatility.”

U.S. equity markets posted losses in all three indexes last week. The S&P 500 lost 3.05%, the NASDAQ Composite lost 3.82%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 2.90%.

Last week, the gold spot price was up 1.92% and the U.S. Dollar Index was down 1.35%.

Last week, gold prices bounced up off this year’s previous support levels.

The major U.S. stock market indexes were down last week. The S&P 500 decreased by 2.41%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 2.14%, the NASDAQ Composite was down 2.80%, and the Russell 2000 small-capitalization index gave back 2.55%. The 10-year Treasury bond yield fell 21 basis points to 2.92%, taking Treasury bonds higher for the week. Spot gold closed the week at $1,811.79, down 3.82%.