Current market environment performance of dynamic, risk-managed investment solutions.
By David Wismer
For as long as there has been a stock market, amateur and professional analysts have tried to find correlations between external factors and market performance. Those efforts have ranged from the outright silly and coincidental (see the discussion of the “Super Bowl Indicator” below) to the most complex and serious econometric models.
Some such analytic efforts, especially those related to the calendar and the economy, may have a basis in real facts and cause and effect. Tax-related issues, business and investment reporting periods, commodity seasonality, political election cycles, and sentiment at various times of the year have shown repeatable patterns over the years. Many of these factors can be built into active trading models using sophisticated algorithms and any number of statistical factors.
Designing a model- or algorithm-based strategy is a challenging task that typically involves rigorous analysis of historical data to discover an exploitable market edge. Once identified, a process is built that includes trading rules (the “strategy”) that the manager or computer will apply to take advantage of that edge.
In the Proactive Advisor Magazine article “The case for mechanical trading strategies, “ the author, a quantitative strategy consultant, writes,
“Mechanical strategies have the distinct advantage of making the best use of historical data. They allow for a backtesting process that comes as close as possible to simulating the real-life execution of the strategy concept. Without overlooking any trades, a computer can go through large amounts of data in very little time. In contrast, human decisions cannot be consistently reproduced (because of the effects of stress, moods, or subjective judgment) and require significant time to simulate trade results even for short periods. “Validation is the process of making sure that the trading concept provides a real market edge, meaning one likely to persist in the future. In other words, validation focuses on identifying the ‘fool’s gold’ from the real precious metal before getting investors to buy a stake in the prospecting venture.”
“Mechanical strategies have the distinct advantage of making the best use of historical data. They allow for a backtesting process that comes as close as possible to simulating the real-life execution of the strategy concept. Without overlooking any trades, a computer can go through large amounts of data in very little time. In contrast, human decisions cannot be consistently reproduced (because of the effects of stress, moods, or subjective judgment) and require significant time to simulate trade results even for short periods.
“Validation is the process of making sure that the trading concept provides a real market edge, meaning one likely to persist in the future. In other words, validation focuses on identifying the ‘fool’s gold’ from the real precious metal before getting investors to buy a stake in the prospecting venture.”
Flexible Plan Investments’ approach
The experienced and knowledgeable research group at Flexible Plan Investments (FPI) spends countless hours and resources in developing and validating investment strategies that are based in mathematical constructs. Led by President and Founder Jerry Wagner and Research and Portfolio Manager Daniel Poppe, the team is responsible, in part, for optimizing trading system models, developing and verifying new algorithmic trading methodologies through implementation and live trading, designing and testing proprietary asset-allocation approaches, and applying walk-forward optimization techniques.
Only strategies that demonstrate high probability of success against specific design objectives (and that have been backtested across various market conditions and scenarios) are considered for inclusion in FPI’s lineup of strategic portfolio solutions for advisers and their clients.
Three core principles guide FPI’s investment process:
1. A quantitative and systematic approach to dynamic risk management. FPI uses data-driven analytics to identify market trends and optimize portfolio decisions, ensuring each step is research-backed and precise, taking the emotion out of investing.
2. Innovation and evolution in multi-strategy diversification. Through ongoing refinement, advanced analytics, and new economic insights and the latest technologies, FPI works to keep highly diversified portfolios adaptable and resilient in changing markets.
3. Client-centered objectives and managing investor expectations. FPI’s process is designed to align with each client’s goals—offering the ability to build a customized portfolio that can remain consistent with the client’s financial objectives and risk tolerance through different market environments.
For additional perspective, please read the in-depth interview with Jerry Wagner in The Wealth Advisor, which explores FPI’s differentiated approach to active investment management, innovation, and personalized support.
But what about the Super Bowl Indicator?
At this time of the year, it seems appropriate to shift briefly from the serious business of strategy construction to one of those silly and coincidental seasonal forecasting metrics.
Specifically, what will the “Super Bowl Indicator” say about market prospects for 2026? And, based on that, who should you be rooting for in the Super Bowl this coming Sunday--the Seattle Seahawks (NFC) or the New England Patriots (AFC)?
According to Investopedia, the “Super Bowl Indicator” can be characterized as follows:
• “The Super Bowl Indicator predicts stock market trends based on the winning conference of the Super Bowl team. A win for the NFC team predicts a bull market, while an AFC win suggests a bear market.”
• “From 1967 to 2025, the indicator was correct with 71% accuracy. Since 2005, however, it has only been correct about 40% of the time. Up to the 1990s, the Super Bowl Indicator boasted a more than 90% success rate in predicting the up-or-down outcome of the S&P 500. …”
There is an important caveat. Teams that originated in the pre-merger NFL are counted as NFC teams, even if they are now an AFC team. The Pittsburgh Steelers are a notable example, given their Super Bowl success.
One additional factor helps explain the indicator’s declining accuracy. When you consider the relative Super Bowl dominance of the New England Patriots (AFC) and, to a lesser degree, the Kansas City Chiefs (also AFC) in this century, it is hardly surprising that the predictive power of the Super Bowl Indicator has suffered since 2005. While 2008 and 2022 were steep drawdown years for the S&P 500, the Index has had a strong majority of positive years since 2005.
While we can have fun discussing this particular “indicator,” it just confirms what serious market strategists know to be true. No seasonal or historically based methodology—no matter its apparent strengths—can forecast short- or intermediate-term market outcomes with absolute certainty. And none justify abandoning sound risk management practices, diversification, and constant market vigilance.
That said, regardless of the Super Bowl Indicator’s validity, I say “Go Seahawks” anyway!